Most tipsters ask you to trust them. We would rather show you the workings. This page explains how our daily selections are made, in plain English, so you can decide for yourself whether they are worth following.
The one idea behind everything: value
A bet is not good because the horse is likely to win. A bet is good when the price is bigger than the chance. Backing an even-money shot that should be 1/2 is a smart bet even though it loses half the time. Backing a 1/2 shot that should be even money is a bad bet even though it wins most of the time.
That single idea, value, drives every selection on this site. We are not trying to find the most likely winner of each race. We are trying to find horses whose odds look too big for their real chance. You can read the full idea in our guide to value betting.
Where the numbers come from
Our model, which we call BetBot, runs every morning once the day's UK and Ireland markets have taken shape. For each race it pulls live data straight from the Betfair Exchange, the same market professionals use, and looks at:
- The exchange price of every runner, which is the closest thing racing has to a true, commission-free market view.
- Market structure, how tight the spread is between the back and lay price, how the money is distributed across the field, and how efficient the market looks overall.
- Form data where available, recent finishing positions, official ratings, the jockey and trainer, blended in to sharpen the estimate.
From that it builds an estimate of each horse's fair price, compares it to the price you can actually get, and flags the runners where the gap, the edge, is positive and meaningful.
How to read a selection
Every tip on the today's tips page shows a handful of figures:
- Time and race, when and where it runs.
- Price, the best decimal odds available when the tips were generated, with the traditional fraction beside it. Prices move, so always check before betting.
- Edge, how much bigger that price is than the model's fair estimate. More positive is more value.
- Rating, a plain label for how strong the value case is.
The rating comes in three levels:
| Rating | What it means |
|---|---|
| Strong | High confidence in the value case, a clear, well-supported edge. |
| Moderate | A solid value signal with a little less conviction. |
| Speculative | A smaller or noisier edge, often at a bigger price. Interesting, not a banker. |
Crucially, the rating measures confidence in the value, not the probability of winning. A Strong selection is not "more likely to win" than a Speculative one, it is one the model is more sure represents a fair-or-better price.
How we track it, honestly
A tipping record only means something if it counts every bet. So in our results tracker we apply level stakes: every single selection is treated as a one-point bet, win or lose, with nothing left out.
- A winner at 5.0 (4/1) returns +4 points.
- A loser costs 1 point.
- We report profit and loss in points, return on investment, and strike rate, and we show the running curve so you can see the rough patches as well as the good runs.
One point can be 50p or £50 to you. The percentages are the same either way, which is why we talk in points rather than pounds.
The honest limitations
We would rather you trust us for the long term than oversell a single day.
- Value is a long game. Edges are small and only show up over a large number of bets. A losing week, even a losing month, is completely normal and expected.
- Prices move. The model reads the price at generation time. By the time you bet, the odds may be shorter, which eats into the edge. Take the best price you can.
- It is one input. Treat the selections as a researched starting point, not gospel. Your own knowledge of ground, trainers and going still matters.
- Some days there is nothing. When no race offers value, we post nothing rather than inventing a bet. A blank day is the model doing its job.
Bet responsibly
These tips are for readers aged 18 and over. Betting should be fun and never a way to make money or chase losses. Set a budget before you start, only stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and never bet to recover. If betting stops being fun, free and confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org or on the National Gambling Helpline, 0808 8020 133. See our responsible gambling page for more.